Election Predictions anyone?

[EZ103.3FM]

As of Monday 10/29, the 538blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ predicts a 56.5%-43.5% win for Manchin, and gives Raese only a 9% chance of winning. 538 and RealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com predicts a 52-48 margin in the Senate for the Democrats, down 1 seat from the current spread. That's assuming the Independant favored to win in Maine caucuses with the Democrats.

538 also predicts a 297-241 Electoral vote win for President Obama, and gives Romney only a 25% chance of winning. It predicts Romney will win WV by about a 58%-40% margin.

RealClearPolitics currently has Obama leading in Electoral votes 201-191, with 11 tossup states totalling 146 Electoral votes. Their prediction is an Obama win 290-248.

The NY Times calls WV01 and WV02 'safe Republican' House districts, and says WV03 is 'leaning Democrat'. RealClearPolitics says has Rahall in the 'likely' category and says Republicans currently have 226 likely or leaning House seats, while the Democrats have 183. There are 26 tossups and the current split is 241-194. If each party wins half of the 26 tossup races, that would mean a gain of 2 seats for the Democrats.

I can't find any numeric predictions on the governor's race. Real Clear Politics says Tomblin is 'safe'.

Any predictions on any of the above - national or state races?

[Bob Campbell]

Nate Silver's blog has been extremely reliable. He ( and he must live in mom's basement) uses every poll from what seems like the last 4 centuries. Actually, he's been tracking every poll in the nation since January 2011 and uses all the historic numbers to base his statements. No polling is perfect, but they're pretty darn good.
Interesting point. Next Tuesday is the anniversary of the election of William Henry Harrison, who won with an electoral majority while losing the popular vote. The same thing could happen next week when the President is re-elected.

[EZ103.3FM]

Nate Silver's blog has been extremely reliable. He ( and he must live in mom's basement) uses every poll from what seems like the last 4 centuries. Actually, he's been tracking every poll in the nation since January 2011 and uses all the historic numbers to base his statements. No polling is perfect, but they're pretty darn good.
Interesting point. Next Tuesday is the anniversary of the election of William Henry Harrison, who won with an electoral majority while losing the popular vote. The same thing could happen next week when the President is re-elected.

Silver says there's about a 5% chance of Obama being re-elected with Romney winning the popular vote, and a 2.3% of vice versa.

Here are his percentages of various scenarios.....
Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.2%
Obama wins popular vote 77.4%
Romney wins popular vote 22.6%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.3%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.0%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.9%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 3.9%

[lastone]

Someone will win....but we all will loose!

[David Paleg]

He has a ghost of a chance.

He is dying for your support.

[EZ103.3FM]

WIth the great decrease in straight tickets by the Democrats, it's dangerous to assume, but I don't think there will be any surprises in the WV voting for statewide offices, president, senate and congress.

I think Sean Hornbuckle will make a good showing in his first attempt in House District 16. It's a little messy to predict there also.
Currently in District 16, it's D's Doug Reynolds and Dale Stephens and R Kelli Sobonya.
In District 15, it's D's Kevin Craig and Jim Morgan and R Carol Miller.
District 17 has been a Wayne County district with D's Rick Thompson and Don Perdue.

With redistricting, District 16 is still Craig, Morgan and Miller, with Hornbuckle and another R also running.
Reynolds and Stephens are now District 17 with 2 R's opposing them.
District 18 is Sobonya running against a D in a single delegate district.
Thompson and Perdue are now Disrict 19.
District 15 is now a single delegate district entirely in Putnam County.

I think Obama wins reelection. I'm not sure he'll win Ohio, but I think he'll win Wisconsin, Colorado & Virginia along with Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa & Pennsylvania.

D's control the Senate, winning Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin & Virginia.

And my cousins Willard 'Boog' Earle and Craig Hose win re-election as Magristrates in Grant and Hardy Counties, respectively. They're the sons of Willard Earle and Jack Hose, both formerly of WELD Radio in Fisher WV.